Lars’ PL Preview Part IV: The Title Race

We’re just days away from the 2024/25 PL season, and our football expert Lars Sivertsen shifts his focus to the clubs hoping to secure European spots this this time around.

We had a top three in the PL last season and I tend to think we will have that again this season. There was a gap of 14 points between Liverpool in third and Aston Villa in fourth last time out, and looking at the xG difference there was a similar gap between Arsenal (+48.2), Manchester City (+44.9) and Liverpool (+42.00), and down to Chelsea (+16.4) in fourth. While there is certainly potential for some of the teams we mention in the CL hopefuls segment of this preview to improve, but improve by that much?

I’m not quite convinced. Nor do I think any of these three will completely implode. So here we are, with a fairly clear-cut top three. And the big question is, of course, will we have a new champion this season or will Manchester City win it for the fifth season running?

Check Lars’ thoughts on the relegation battle here.
Check Lars’ thoughts on the midtable madness here.
Check Lars’ thoughts on the CL hopefuls here.

3rd place: Liverpool

• Odds to win: 8.00
• Odds to finish top 2: 2.35
• Odds to go unbeaten: 200.00

Reasons for optimism:

A pretty seismic change took place at Liverpool this summer with Jürgen Klopp stepping down, and the club’s ownership has responded not just by hiring a new manager but by revamping the whole sporting leadership structure and bringing back Michael Edwards – the sporting director widely credited with putting together the great teams Liverpool had under Klopp. Edwards is now the “chief executive of football” and the former Bournemouth technical director Richard Hughes has come on as the sporting director. And of course, Arne Slot is the new head coach. It remains to be seen whether this new constellation will be successful, but it is at least reassuring to see Liverpool’s owners accept that filling the void left by Klopp will take more than just sticking a new manager in the dugout.

Klopp’s departure obviously creates no small amount of uncertainty, but this is still a very strong squad – and as I note in the intro to this piece the gap between Liverpool in third and the rest of the league last season was pretty big. Comparisons will be drawn between Slot and the daunting tasks David Moyes and Unai Emery took on when replacing Sir Alex Ferguson and Arsene Wenger, but the Liverpool squad looks in significantly better shape than those Arsenal and Manchester United squads did. A back four of Trent Alexander-Arnold, Ibrahima Konate, Virgil van Dijk and Andy Robertson is still one of the best around. In Alexis Mac Allister and Dominik Szoboszlai they have two thirds of a midfield that’s good enough to win the title, in my opinion, and attempts to bring in Martin Zubimendi show that the club are serious about filling that last spot. Options in attack are both varied and formidable. Any front three compiled from Mohamed Salah, Luis Diaz, Diogo Jota, Darwin Nunez and Cody Gakpo will give opponents much to worry about. For much of last season Liverpool looked like a team that could win the league, and while that title charge eventually collapsed there should be no doubting the quality in this squad.

Reasons for concern:

Why then, have I ranked them lowest in this segment of the table?

You will notice from the odds that the odds compilers think there is a pretty big gap between Liverpool (priced at 8.00 to win) on the one hand, and Man City (priced at 2.10) and Arsenal (2.45) on the other.

Why, when Liverpool were fully in the title race for so long last season, is that gap so big? Well, it’s an obvious point but there really is no escaping the uncertainty brought on by the new manager.

Arne Slot arrives having done fine work at Feyenoord and AZ, but he has never been tested outside of Dutch football and following Jürgen Klopp is no small task. We’ve also seen plenty of examples that managerial success in the Dutch league does not always translate well to bigger clubs in bigger leagues. Liverpool are faced with tricky and potentially destabilizing contractual situations this season, with Mohamed Salah, Virgil van Dijk and Trent Alexander-Arnold – three of the most important players in the squad – all going into the final season of their contracts. The anchor role in midfield remains a bit of a question mark, even though Mac Allister filled in admirably at times last season and Wataru Endo is a capable player. Ibrahima Konta’s tendency to miss games at the back means a more experienced backup than Jarell Quansah might be a good thing to have over the course of the season. The chaotic energy of Darwin Nunez is amusing to neutrals, and his energy and work rate has endeared him to Liverpool fans, but 9 and 11 goals in his first two PL campaigns really isn’t good enough for a player that should be Liverpool’s attacking focal point. By comparison, even the much-dissed Kai Havertz managed 13 for Arsenal after spending more than half the season playing in midfield.

Verdict:

The squad really isn’t too far off the required quality to take on Manchester City and Arsenal, but there are a couple of question marks.

The biggest one, inevitably, is the new manager. Liverpool should have more than enough star power in the team to stave off challengers and keep their CL spot, but a league title in Slot’s first season seems a bit of a reach.

2nd place: Manchester City

• Odds to win: 2.10
• Odds to finish top 2: 1.35
• Odds to go unbeaten: 25.00

Reasons for optimism:

I mean, they’re Manchester City. They’ve won six out of the last seven league titles, and they’ve won them so comprehensively that they’ve raised the bar for what is needed to win this league. Before the turn of the millennium we would regularly see teams win the PL without getting to 80 points. In fact, Sir Alex Ferguson’s last title in 2011 was won with 80 points, and Leicester City won the title with 81 points. Last season 81 points would put you fourth in the table. With City regularly getting into the 90s under Guardiola, once even breaking the 100-barrier, it has completely changed the way we look at winning the league – in terms of how many games you can afford to drop points in, and the level of consistency and depth required to get there. Under Guardiola City haven’t just been good, they’ve moved the goalposts in terms of what being good in the PL means and looks like. And betting against them has, typically, been a foolish venture. The strengths of the team are so well-known that they scarcely need to be listed, but they have the best penalty box striker in the world, the best playmaker in the world (when he’s fit), and the best holding midfielder in the world. That’s not a bad start. And they’re led by an era-defining manager who time after time finds a way to win. Much is made of the style of Guardiola’s teams and the system he uses, but what truly elevates him – in my view – is his ability to improvise and find solutions to the tactical problems that present themselves, as well as his ability to set and maintain relentlessly high standards and drive his players to incredible levels of consistency. For over half a decade predicting the league winner has been easy: You analyse the teams, weigh the squads up against each other, consider all the factors very carefully, and then you throw all of your work out the window and write down “Manchester City”. Job done.

Reasons for concern:

So why not this time around? Well, perhaps it’s just my time to be the idiot who picks someone else. But I have my reasons. The charges levelled at Manchester City by the PL are due to be resolved this season, with the independent hearings set to start in the coming months. The situation is completely unprecedented, the outcome impossible to predict, but it’s hard to see how it doesn’t have some kind of effect on City’s season. When the charges were first brought by the PL, the immediate effect seemed to be to create a siege mentality and galvanize the team. But still I think the hearing itself and the potential outcomes can become a distraction. As can the future of Pep Guardiola, who is in the final year of his contract and has spoken publicly about the possibility of leaving the club. Another player who has spoken publicly about the possibility of leaving is Kevin de Bruyne, who has been picking up injuries and has suggested he could be tempted by a move to Saudi Arabia. Julian Alvarez has left, and the versatile and energetic Argentine was a very useful option for Guardiola in several positions.

Verdict:

Listen, no one should be surprised if Manchester City win the league again. They are favourites on the betting markets for a reason. But the outcome of the hearings regarding the 115 charges against them adds an element of uncertainty this season, as do the questions around the futures of both Pep Guardiola and creator-in-chief Kevin de Bruyne. And Arsenal did actually end up with a better xG difference than City last season, even though City eventually beat them by two points. I think it’s plausible that serial champions City could be just a little bit less sharp this season, and that might be enough for Arsenal to pip them to the post.

1st place: Arsenal

• Odds to win: 2.85
• Odds to finish top 2: 1.45
• Odds to go unbeaten: 80.00

Reasons for optimism:

Arsenal ended last season on 89 points, which before the era of Pep Guardiola’s Manchester City was almost always enough to win the league. They had the best defence in the league, measured both by xG and actual goals against. And the attack seemed to largely fall into place in the second half of the season – they scored the most goals in the league last season after January 1st. To this defence, which was already the best in the league, they’ve added the excellent Riccardo Calafiori from Bologna, while a fit Jurrien Timber will be – to borrow and old Wenger-ism – like a new signing. The midfield is already excellent, and if efforts to sign Mikel Merino prove successful he would make a fine addition as well. A pairing of Merino and Declan Rice, in front of that defence, would be a deeply unpleasant thing for opponents to try to find a way through. In front of that you have one of the two best blond Norwegian footballers in the world pulling the strings, providing ammunition for the likes of Saka and Havertz – the latter seeming to finally find his place in the team as a striker in the second half of last season. In short: Arsenal were brilliant last season, and I don’t see an obvious reason as to why they should be a lot less good this time around.

Reasons for concern:

It is perhaps intriguing that Arsenal have decided to strengthen their defence (Calafiori) and are attempting to bolster their midfield (Merino), seemingly before adding something to their attack. Again, they were already the best defensive team in the league, and if they faltered last season – I am hesitant to regard an 89 point-season as any kind of failure – it was down the other end of the pitch. They seem a little bit over reliant on Bukayo Saka, with options on the left-hand side a little bit less convincing. Kai Havertz did at times look like a solution up front, but I would feel a little bit better about their title chances if they did sign a striker at some point.

Both Havertz and Garbiel Jesus bring a lot to the team in that position, but if Havertz/Jesus is your plan A and B up front then I would certainly like to see another winger with a track-record of scoring a lot of goals in the team. Maybe Gabriel Martinelli simply had an off-season last term and will be back to previous levels this time around, but I’m not fully convinced. These concerns of mine could, of course, be eased by transfers before the window closes.

Verdict:

The short version is that I don’t think Arsenal have gotten worse since last season, whereas I think there could be some clouds on the horizon for City. If Arsenal maintain their levels from last season, City only need to take a couple of points less than they did for Arsenal to win the league. And I think there is a reasonable possibility of this happening. I would like to see them add an attacker, either a striker or a left winger who could be an upgrade on Martinelli and Trossard, but again, I think what Arsenal did last season might be enough to win the league this season – and I would back them to be able to repeat that performance now.

The odds might have changed since the writing and publication of this post.

Last updated: 16.08.24