Manchester City are just one game away from completing the treble, but a stubborn Inter stand in their way. Having recently won the Coppa Italia and shown plenty of grit to get to this final, Inter will hope to spring an upset in Istanbul.
By Lars Sivertsen, Football Expert for Betsson
*Please be aware that the odds might have changed since publication
The case for Inter
There is no doubt that Inter have been less good at football than Manchester City this season, by any rational measure. They finished 3rd in Serie A but lost a whopping 12 games, conceded 42 goals and finished 18 points behind Italian champions Napoli. In the Champions League they won 1-0 on aggregate against Porto, beat a Benfica side that had key players missing through injury, before they then knocked out local rivals Milan – who were without talismanic forward Rafael Leao in the first leg. There is no such thing as an easy run to a Champions League final, but this certainly hasn’t been the hardest one we’ve seen in recent years either.
All that being said, Inter have won the Coppa Italia and have on occasion shown a certain stubbornness. They do have experienced, competitive players across the board, and they play in a compact manner which could prove an awkward tactical matchup for Manchester City. We have City occasionally struggle to break down a packed defence. Inter also have the tools to bypass Manchester City’s high press by playing it long to Edin Dzeko (or Romelu Lukaku, should he start).
It’s possible, though not very likely, that Inter’s packed midfield can interrupt City’s rhythm, that their defence will force them wide and deal with crosses that come in – and that Lautaro Martinez can do some damage on counter attacks. Possible, though not very likely.
The case for City
Well this should be a short segment, or a very long one. They’re the best team in the world right now, and have been on a remarkable run of results this spring. To get to the final they’ve casually swatted aside RB Leipzig, Bayern Munich and Real Madrid. The home leg against Real Madrid was particularly ominous, in the way City almost casually outplayed a team full of serial champions. It felt like a sea change of some kind, confirmation if any were needed that this City team is currently peerless in world football.
Now it’s time to actually win the thing. And actually winning it is the one thing Manchester City haven’t achieved since being bought by Abu Dhabi United Group in 2006. They’ve won five out of the last six Premier League titles, prompting concerns over whether the Premier League is as competitive as the marketers and rights holders would claim it to be. They’ve won a bunch of domestic cups. But the Champions League still eludes them, and winning it this weekend would feel strangely overdue. It would be a big moment for Pep Guardiola as well, who still hasn’t won a Champions League title without having Lionel Messi in the team.
Manchester City are a better team than Inter on paper, and they’ve been a better team than Inter on grass this season. Guardiola seems to have settled on a team that works, and has so far this season resisted the urge to tinker needlessly with the team in big games. Their defeat in the final against Chelsea two years ago means a number of players in the squad have experienced a Champions League final before and are less likely to be rattled by the occasion. There really is very little at all to suggest that City will fail, beyond the eternal truth that anything can happen over 90 minutes of football.
The game
Without wanting to come across as boring or predictable, we’re going to go with the same main bet we did in the FA cup final: Manchester City to win in 90 minutes and under 4.5 goals. Champions League finals rarely descend into chaos, and while City are huge favourites you would expect Inter to be able to keep the score respectable.
If we go to the Bet Builder and construct a bet with Manchester City to win in 90 minutes and under 4.5 goals we end up with odds of 1.75, which I think is perfectly backable here. It covers 1-0, 2-0, 3-0 and 4-0, as well as 2-1 and 3-1 to City. That for me seems like a handy list of the most likely results here after 90 minutes, so I’m happy to make that my main bet for the evening.
There is another angle, which is to look at Betsson’s pre-built bets and pick up “Man City to win, both teams to score, over 2.5 goals” at a price of 3.00. This might seem contradictory to my thinking with the main bet here, but it’s all about the value for me here. Manchester City have been imperious this season, but they haven’t been impenetrable. Last season they kept a clean sheet in 55% of their games in the Premier League, this season it’s been down to 34%. They’ve allowed more touches in their box by the opponent this season in the league than in any other Premier League season under Guardiola, even his somewhat erratic first season in Manchester. In the knock-out stages of the Champions League they did concede away to Leipzig, away to Bayern Munchen and away to Real Madrid. As confident as I am in a City win, I don’t think it’s unlikely at all that Inter can nick a goal somewhere. And so with that in mind, a price of 3.00 on City winning without keeping a clean sheet looks very big to me, and is worth a small stake.
“The Grealish thing”, and Epic Brozo
As for side bets, I have arrived at a nice little spread of stuff I feel is worth a punt. We’ll start out with cards, and while I’m not totally convinced this will be a card heavy affair, I can’t resist “the Grealish thing”: In games involving Jack Grealish, look for the players who are trying to stop him to get booked. He drew the second most fouls in the Premier League this season (narrowly behind Wilfried Zaha), and he’s drawn the fifth most fouls per 90 in the Champions League. Inter are not a team that usually picks up a lot of bookings, but needs must and if they’re going to stop City they will probably have to look to the dark arts. Grealish’s tendency to keep on to the ball for a split second longer than most other players means he often gets kicked, and he regularly tricks opponents into conceding unnecessary fouls in dangerous areas.
Facing Grealish on Inter’s right side is likely to be Mateo Darmian at right centre back, Denzel Dumfries at right wing back and Nicolo Barella on the right hand side of the three. Barella is also the second most booked player per 90 out of Inter’s regulars, just behind his feisty midfield partner Mateo Brozovic. Darmian is 3.10 to be booked, Barella is 2.80 and Dumfries is 2.70. My instinct would be to go with Barella and Dumfries, as Darmian is likely to be defending Grealish closer to goal and should therefore be trying very hard to avoid giving away fouls. But you could probably do worse than a spread of small stakes on all three. Additionally, Betsson are offering odds of 2.40 on Barella to concede more than 1.5 fouls. His average in the league this season has been 0.9 per game, so in a normal game of football Barella will typically concede one foul. Here he is going to have to help his defenders with containing Grealish, and I’d be very surprised if he didn’t end up committing more than one foul in this game. Barella to commit more than 1.5 fouls in the game at 2.40 is probably my single favourite bet of the evening.
As we mentioned, Mateo Brozovic has a feisty streak to him and has been booked nine times in just 19 starts (and 9 games off the bench) in Serie A this season. If he starts, backing him to get booked at 3.00 or to commit over 1.5 fouls at 2.40 is an option worth exploring here.
Long shots and penalties
This is very likely to be a game where Inter sit deep, while City move the ball around and look for openings. As such, I suspect we may see a game where City are tempted to take a few shots from range. This is typically not something Pep Guardiola encourages, but if Inter keep it tight for a while it might become very tempting for the City players to try.
Betsson are offering odds of 1.88 on Rodri taking a shot from outside the box, and while Rodri has averaged just 0.5 shots from outside the box per game in the Premier League this season I suspect he may be tempted here. I also want to take a real long shot on Kevin De Bruyne finding the net from outside the box. The Belgian is 9.00 to score from outside the box, and given that there could be City frustration and a lot of set pieces in this game I think that’s worth a small stake.
Also, given his recent form, it’s very tempting to look at Ilkay Gundogan to do something here. He scored a fine brace in the FA Cup final last weekend, and he can both be a threat from range and make well-timed runs into the box. Betsson are offering 1.95 for Gundogan to have a shot on target, which I think is generous, and 3.75 on him to score a goal.
Lastly, I think there is a pretty good chance we’ll see a penalty in this game. With Inter likely sitting deep, we should start seeing crosses being flung into the box and opportunistic shots being taken from outside the box. The way the handball rule is right now, any bounce of an Inter-hand can be a penalty. Manchester City received a total of 10 penalties in the Premier League this season, more than any other team. Betsson are offering odds of 2.85 on there being a penalty in the game, and 4.50 on Manchester City specifically scoring a penalty. Both are worth a look in my opinion.
Good luck and enjoy the game!