The weekend is here, and ‘The Lars Resort’ host Lars Sivertsen has drummed up a brand new boosted treble for this weekend’s football action from England, as well as a few single bets.
By Lars Sivertsen, Football Expert for Betsson
*Please be aware that the odds might have changed since publication
Boosted treble of the week
Manchester City – Newcastle
Manchester City remain a slightly strange beast this season. They are clearly able to outplay pretty much any opponent on their day, and have shown that often enough. But they’ve also been strangely prone to off-days. This does make it slightly harder than usual to fully trust them, but they’ve also reminded us in recent games against Aston Villa, Arsenal and Bournemouth, that this is still Manchester City.
Newcastle United had a hugely impressive start to the season and went into the early winter break in fourth place, having lost just one of their first 15 games. Since then it’s been a different story. In 8 games in the Premier League since the break Newcastle have lost one, drawn five and won two. They’re really struggling to create things going forward, and away to Man City I think that’s a recipe for a bad time. I won’t overcomplicate this, I want a straight Man City win on this weekend’s treble.
Arsenal – Bournemouth
Arsenal picked up another fine win this midweek as they thumped Everton 4-0. Arteta’s men didn’t create an awful lot in the first half, but after Bukayo Saka scored a brilliant opening goal Arsenal never looked back. After their little wobble a couple of weeks ago, Arsenal have now put up three solid wins against Aston Villa, Leicester City and Everton. Not the most ferocious of opponents, perhaps, but the games have to be played and won and Arsenal have won them well.
Bournemouth have shown sporadic moments of resilience recently, getting a creditable draw against Newcastle and a 1-0 win away to Wolves. Still, according to Opta’s “Expected Goals”-numbers, Bournemouth are the worst team in the division by some margin. They were easily dismantled by Manchester City last weekend, and I think an Arsenal team who are rediscovering their groove should have few problems swatting them aside at home this weekend. In fact I don’t just want Arsenal on the weekly treble, I want Arsenal with a -1 handicap.
Liverpool – Manchester United
Manchester United lifted their first trophy under Erik ten Hag’s leadership last weekend, and have been on fine form since the November/December break. Like Arsenal and Manchester City they’ve picked up 23 points in the Premier League since that very unusual winter break, but they’ve played 10 games whereas City and Arsenal have played 11. So between that and the win in the Carabao cup, you can make a case for Manchester United having been the best team in the Premier League since the break.
Liverpool have arrested their slide in recent weeks. They’ve picked up three wins and a draw in their last four, which means they’re now very much back in the hunt for a top 4 spot. We should be careful in declaring that Liverpool are now fixed and everything is fine on the back of a few good results against the likes of Everton and Wolves, but they certainly have looked better than in the dark days of January. Liverpool’s lows this season have been very low indeed, but if we step back a little bit we can also note that since the start of the season they’ve created the third highest xG-number in the division. Defensively things are not quite as good, and there are major concerns that the squad no longer have the energy to carry out Jurgen Klopp’s signature pressing game. But they are still a force going forward, and things have stabilized a bit overall these last couple of weeks.
In terms of results this is a very difficult game to predict, but I do think we should see goals. Liverpool have been doing reasonably well going forward this season, but too often they’ve been too easy to play against. Their defensive record has improved of late, but in those last four games in the Premier League they’ve played Everton, Newcastle who were 10 men for most of the game, Crystal Palace and Wolves. Manchester United will be something else. United for their part have scored in 11 out of 12 away games this season. But at the same time, only five teams have conceded more goals away from home this season than Manchester United – so they haven’t exactly been impenetrable on their travels.
For me all this points to goals, so I’ll be adding “over 2.5 goals” in Liverpool – Manchester United to this weekend’s boosted treble.
Normally a treble with a Man City win, Arsenal with a -1 handicap and over 2.5 goals in Liverpool – Manchester United would fetch a price of 4.14, but Betsson have boosted it to 4.35.
Selected singles
Manchester City – Newcastle
Newcastle’s post international break slump has gone slightly under the radar as I see it, with much of the media attention on the club still focussed on what a good job Eddie Howe has done. And he has, of course, but this is a team that’s run out of steam in a pretty big way. They’ve only won once in their last seven games in the league, and only scored three goals in that period. When Manchester United took the lead in the Carabao Cup final, they had very little to offer.
When things aren’t quite going your way then a trip to Manchester City away isn’t really what the doctor ordered. It’s possible that Newcastle’s aggressive pressing game will disrupt City’s rhythm, but I’m more inclined to think that a team struggling for goals as badly as Newcastle are will find this hard going. So I’d like to back Manchester City in some capacity here. A straight Man City win at odds of 1.45 is perhaps not the most exciting, but I’d like to add “over 1.5 goals”. Newcastle United have defended well recently, it’s true, but when Manchester City get going they can be hard to stop. I think Manchester City to win + over 1.5 goals, so a Manchester City win and any other result than 1-0, at a price of 1.70 is a good value bet this weekend.
Wolverhampton – Tottenham
Tottenham have been an infuriating team this season, often putting in some deeply uninspiring performances yet also picking up enough points to be fourth in the table. This is perhaps more down to Liverpool and Chelsea having various kinds of trouble, and Newcastle losing their way since the international break. Still, there they are, fourth, just four points being a much lauded Manchester United side (though having played one game more). Tottenham are also, somehow, the third highest scorers in the league this season, behind Arsenal and Manchester City.
One reason why Tottenham are doing alright in the league in spite of what most would agree has been a disappointing season, is that they’ve been reasonably good at getting the job done against weaker teams in the league. In games against teams who are 7th and below in the table, Spurs have won 13, drawn 3 and lost 2. Against teams that are 6th and above, they’ve won one, drawn none and lost six. That’s a pretty stark difference.
And it brings us neatly to Wolves. Wolves have too many good footballers to get themselves relegated, and under Julen Lopetegui’s stewardship I’m sure they’ll gradually climb away from the bottom. All that being said, they’re also not a very good team at the moment. Results have not been completely awful, but underlying numbers tell a story: Since the aforementioned break, only Crystal Palace, Bournemouth, Nottingham Forest and Southampton have produced a lower xG-number in attack than Wolves. And they’ve not been especially impressive at the back either, with just Leicester, Palace, Bournemouth, Everton and Aston Villa conceding a higher xG-number defensively. They’re performing like a bog-standard lower midtable team, and whatever else you can say about Spurs this season they’ve been pretty good at putting those away.
It feels iffy to back Spurs after their debacle at Bramall Lane this midweek, but odds for 2.30 at the time of writing seems generous for Spurs to beat a team that recently lost at home to Bournemouth. It’s rarely been good to watch, but results against weaker teams have been pretty good all season, and I think Spurs can win here.
Liverpool – Manchester United
Lastly, for all the reasons outlined in the treble analysis, I really like backing goals at Anfield this weekend. The price of just 2.5 goals is a bit on the low side for me to pick it as a single, but I’d like to add “both teams to score” to the equation. With “over 2.5 goals and both teams to score” we end up with odds of 1.87, which is probably my favourite bet of the entire weekend.
Good luck!