Check out ‘The Lars Resort’ host Lars Sivertsen’s odds tips, including a boosted treble!
Betting Tips: Boosted Treble from Lars Sivertsen
The transfer deadline looms, as does the first international break of the season. But first, a full round of Premier League fixtures this season, and as usual I have landed on a boosted treble and three selected singles that I like.
By Lars Sivertsen, Football Expert for Betsson
Boosted Treble of the week
Brentford – Southampton
Southampton have had a worrying start to life in the Premier League, with zero points and no goals scored in their first two games. They have had a lot of possession in their two games, 77 and 64 percent, but they’ve looked lacking in front of goal. That is to say, in the first game – against a Newcastle team that had a man sent off after 28 minutes – they produced a fair number of chances but failed to put them away. But last weekend they only managed five shots over 90 minutes, at home, against Nottingham Forest. This seems bad.
Their manager conceded after the game that they couldn’t match the individual quality Forest had in their attack, which with the greatest respect to Nottingham Forest, makes me think this will be a long season for Southampton. They may have found a solution to their goalkeeping issues by signing Aaron Ramsdale from Arsenal, but they look worryingly blunt up front.
Brentford were unable to pose a real threat to Liverpool last weekend, but Southampton at home should be a very different type of challenge. Ivan Toney’s future remains in doubt and he will not be featuring in this game, but against a possession-happy Southampton the speedy duo of Bryan Mbuemo and Youane Wissa may prove just as useful. Brentford are not a spectacular team by any means, but they’re a solid and well-drilled outfit and you expect them to get the job done at home against a Southampton team that’s still finding their feet in this
league.
Last season Brentford won all their home games against the team that finished in the bottom four places in the league. I expect Southampton to end the season in that bracket, and I think Brentford will pick them off here. I’m taking a simple, straightforward Brentford win as the first pick on this week’s boosted treble.
Leicester – Aston Villa
Next up I’m expecting more woe for a newly promoted team as Leicester City host Aston Villa. Leicester City, to their credit, were able to see off the storm and get themselves back into the game when they hosted Tottenham in their first home game of the season, but I don’t think Unai Emery’s Villa will fall into the same trap.
Villa actually played reasonably well against Arsenal last weekend. They kept the title candidates at bay for a long time and produced a couple of very good chances themselves. Ollie Watkins being on something of a barren run for them is an issue, with the striker failing to score in his last seven league starts for Aston Villa. But another way of looking at that is that a striker of his quality will inevitably get back amongst the goals at some point, so maybe he’s due one here.
Villa were pretty reliable against teams from the lower end of the table last season. Against teams that finished 13th or below they won11, drew four and lost just one – with the team winning five out of six games against the three teams that got relegated. I’m expecting to find Leicester City very much in this end of the table come the end of the season, and I believe Villa are capable of going to the King Power Stadium and claiming all three points. An Aston Villa win goes on my weekly boosted treble this week.
West Ham – Manchester City
Lastly we’re heading to East London, where Manchester City visit West Ham. City have had a fine start to the season, dispatching both Chelsea and Ipswich. The uncertainty hanging over the club off the pitch does not appear to be affecting them as of right now, and even with key midfield Rodri missing the team has been ticking along nicely. It may have appeared as if Ipswich gave them a scare with their early goal last week, but that goal was also the last shot City conceded in the entire match.
Attempting to stifle the sky-blue death star this week is Julen Lopetegui’s new look West Ham, who have started the season by losing 2-1 to Aston Villa and then beating Crystal Palace 2-0. That Palace result was a little but deceptive in my view, as Palace created a fair number of chances in the game. Villa also found it a little too easy for my taste to create chances against West Ham on the opening day of the season, so it would appear that West Ham’s much-changed defence is taking some time to settle. Which seems like a bad time to play Manchester City.
West Ham are not without attacking threats of their own, and I think this could be a fun game – but I’m not convinced the Hammers can stop City from making it 3 out of 3 to start their season. I’m finishing up our weekly boosted treble with a Manchester City win.
Normally this treble would get you a price of 4.44, but Betsson have increased the odds! Good luck!
Selected singles
Brentford – Southampton
First up with the selected singles this week we’re looking to Brentford and their encounter with Southampton. As you may have surmised from my tone and the pick we went for on the weekly treble, I am very sceptical of Southampton’s chances here. In fact, I think the 1.78 on offer from Betsson for a straight up Brentford win is good value and worth backing. But I also want to make a bit more of a leap here with our selection. As much as I am unconvinced by Southampton and backed them to lose last week, I was still shocked to see them have just five shots over 90 minutes at home against Nottingham Forest – a Nottingham Forest team that typically hasn’t travelled very well since they got promoted to the Premier League.
Here Southampton come up against Brentford, who didn’t have their best year last season but are generally speaking a well put-together, well-drilled outfit. Unless Southampton have gotten an awful lot better the last week, they should have a bad time here. It bears mentioning that Southampton did beat Cardiff 5-3 in the EFL cup this midweek, but that was two rotated teams playing against each other in a competition neither side seemed too invested in. And at any rate, Southampton’s ability to play well against teams from the second tier is not really the issue here.
Backing Brentford to win at 1.78 is an eminently sensible approach to this weekend, but to add a little bit of spice to proceedings I would like to add “both teams to score: no” to that bet. Brentford to win and keep a clean sheet fetches you a price of 3.35, and while that is a bit more of a long shot, I think it is one worth taking this weekend.
Chelsea – Crystal Palace
Next up we head to Stamford Bridge where Chelsea take on Crystal Palace. The 6-2 mauling of Wolves last week mean Chelsea have gotten their well and truly underway, and as listeners to The Lars Resort will know I have been arguing for a long time that this Chelsea team will eventually come good. There are simply too many good players in the squad, sooner or later it will start working.
Thumping an understaffed and possibly demoralised Wolves may be definitive proof of anything, but even though the media have been focusing on how chaotic things are at Chelsea I would be quietly optimistic and confident if I were a Chelsea fan.
Crystal Palace were a little bit unfortunate to lose 2-0 to West Ham last weekend, just as they were a little bit unfortunate to lose 2-1 to Brentford on the opening day of the season. It’s easy to become overly negative when you start the season with two defeats, but really, the performances were pretty reasonable in both games. A lack of cutting edge in attack is a slight concern now that Michael Olise has left for Bayern, but Ebere Eze and Jean-Philippe Mateta should be capable of picking up some of the slack.
Even as they pulverized Wolves Chelsea did concede a fair number of chances, and while their front line looks imposing, they still appear to have some vulnerabilities down the other end. Managers Enzo Maresca
favours a patient build-up play, which the players are only just starting to get used to, and you’d imagine an energetic Palace-team should be able to force some dangerous turnovers in the Chelsea half
here.
Overall, I’m expecting goals here, and with Palace having been pretty unfortunate not to score more in their opening two games I think some of that fortune could start to turn here. On the other hand, Chelsea’s
glistening array of attacking talent has more than enough quality to put Palace to the sword. Regular readers of the blog will know exactly where I’m going with this: I’m taking “both teams to score + over 2.5
goals” at a price of 1.83.
Newcastle – Tottenham
Lastly, I have a pick from a game that I’m expecting to go a little bit off the rails. Tottenham travel to the Northeast to take on Newcastle, in a game that promises goals a-plenty. Playing Newcastle was a distinctly mixed bag for Spurs last season: They won 4-1 at home but lost 4-0 away. That seems very much in keeping with Ange Postecoglou’s adventurous approach to the game, and I think we should
see goals again here.
Newcastle are, on paper, an awkward tactical matchup for Spurs. They have a lot of energy and are eager to press the opponent when they try to build up from the back, while Spurs under Postecoglou are always
trying to do exactly that – build from the back. Not always comfortably or confidently, but they try. It’s not hard to see Newcastle’s energetic attackers forcing turnovers in dangerous areas here, nor is it difficult to imagine Newcastle’s quick and direct wide players exploiting the pace left out wide when Tottenham’s fullbacks
invert.
But there are reasons for optimism for Spurs down the other end of the pitch. Fabian Schar is still suspended, and Sven Botman is still injured, leaving Newcastle with something of an improvised back four.
Spurs were very lively against Everton last weekend, and while Postecoglou’s approach may leave them vulnerable defensively they can also be thrilling in attack.
This game simply screams “goals” to me. Spurs, fresh from a fine performance against Everton should be able to put goals past a makeshift Newcastle defence. Newcastle, with their energy and direct running, are a deeply awkward tactical matchup for Spurs and have all the tools to exploit the vulnerabilities inherent in Tottenham’s style of play. It’s fair to say the betting market is also expecting goals, with over 2.5 goals priced at just 1.38. But over 3.5 is priced at 1.94, and while that may seem low for four goals or more to be scored, I think it’s worth taking here. Again, the games between these two finished 4-0 and 4-1 last season, again I think both teams are cable of both scoring and conceding four again here. It should be a fun game, and I am happy to take “over 3.5 goals” at a price of 1.94.
Good Luck!
PS: Please note that the odds might have changed after writing and publication.
